Toronto Real Estate Market Report ~ October 2024 | Is this the pivotal shift we needed?

The Toronto real estate market saw a significant increase in home sales in October 2024, driven by improved affordability from lower borrowing costs and relatively stable prices.

While new listings also rose, they did so at a more modest rate, leading to tighter market conditions compared to October 2023. Here’s a breakdown of the latest trends and what they mean for buyers, sellers, and investors in the GTA.

Surge in Sales and Modest Price Growth

In October 2024, GTA REALTORS® reported 6,658 home sales, marking a 44.4% increase compared to October 2023, when only 4,611 sales were recorded. The boost in activity reflects a growing number of buyers re-entering the market as mortgage rates become more manageable.

According to TRREB President Jennifer Pearce, this uptick can be attributed to the early effects of the Bank of Canada’s rate-cutting cycle, which has made the market more accessible to those previously waiting on the sidelines.

The average selling price in the GTA rose slightly, by 1.1% year-over-year, reaching $1,135,215. Although the MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was down by 3.3% from last year, this increase in average price suggests demand is strengthening, especially as inventory becomes more limited.

Sales and Average Prices by Home Type

Below is a breakdown of sales and average prices for major home types across the GTA in October 2024:

• Detached Homes:
  • Sales: 3,139 (838 in 416, 2,301 in 905)
  • Average Price: $1,462,838 ($1,778,855 in 416, $1,347,747 in 905)
  • YoY Sales Change: +46.6% (+44.2% in 416, +47.5% in 905)
  • YoY Price Change: +1.2% (+4.4% in 416, -0.1% in 905)
• Semi-Detached Homes:
  • Sales: 612 (263 in 416, 349 in 905)
  • Average Price: $1,108,376 ($1,315,547 in 416, $952,256 in 905)
  • YoY Sales Change: +44.0% (+36.3% in 416, +50.4% in 905)
  • YoY Price Change: +0.7% (+3.3% in 416, -0.4% in 905)
• Townhouses:
  • Sales: 1,123 (224 in 416, 899 in 905)
  • Average Price: $920,201 ($1,032,959 in 416, $892,106 in 905)
  • YoY Sales Change: +56.8% (+40.0% in 416, +61.7% in 905)
  • YoY Price Change: -1.1% (+1.3% in 416, -1.4% in 905)
• Condo Apartments:
  • Sales: 1,722 (1,162 in 416, 560 in 905)
  • Average Price: $694,038 ($721,366 in 416, $637,332 in 905)
  • YoY Sales Change: +33.4% (+32.2% in 416, +35.9% in 905)
  • YoY Price Change: -2.0% (-1.0% in 416, -4.3% in 905)

Year-Over-Year Summary (October 2024)

• Total Sales: 6,658 (2024) vs. 4,611 (2023), an increase of 44.4%
• New Listings: 15,328 (2024) vs. 14,700 (2023), an increase of 4.3%
• Active Listings: 24,481 (2024) vs. 19,536 (2023), an increase of 25.3%
• Average Price: $1,135,215 (2024) vs. $1,123,390 (2023), a slight increase of 1.1%
• Average LDOM (Listing Days on Market): 27 days (2024) vs. 21 days (2023), up 28.6%
• Average PDOM (Property Days on Market): 43 days (2024) vs. 33 days (2023), up 30.3%

Tighter Market Conditions and Policy Impacts

The combination of increased sales and a slower growth rate in new listings has resulted in tighter market conditions. TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer noted that while buyers currently have ample options, inventory may start to decline as it’s absorbed. This trend, coupled with lagging home construction relative to population growth, could lead to a faster pace of price increases by spring 2025.

In addition to market dynamics, recent policy discussions may further impact affordability and housing availability. TRREB CEO John DiMichele highlighted the Conservative Party of Canada’s pledge to remove the GST from new homes priced under $1 million, which would offer first-time buyers significant relief.

DiMichele also suggested a phased-out GST rebate for homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million, aligning with the realities of high-cost markets like the GTA and Vancouver. These policy changes, if implemented, could make a considerable difference in affordability and stimulate new construction.

Looking Ahead: A Market in Transition

With interest rates trending downward and policy shifts potentially on the horizon, the GTA real estate market is positioned for continued growth and evolving conditions. Whether you're a buyer, seller, or investor, staying informed and adapting to these trends will be key to making the most of this dynamic market.

As we move through the rest of 2024 and into 2025, buyers can expect a moderate pace of price growth, while sellers may benefit from an active market with increasing demand.

Have any questions about the market?

Reach out on Instagram @TorontoRealEstate.ca !

Rylie C.

Source

https://communications.torontomls.net/mlshome/download.php?link=market-stats/market-watch/mw2410.pdf